Trump Are Heading For Reelection!
Donald Trump’s odds to win the 2020 Presidential election moved up to -110 just after the debates conclusion, giving him his best numbers since his initial election in 2016.
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Interestingly enough, it was Sanders who saw his odds improve from +800 to +600, while Warren’s post debate odds were unchanged at +400. 2020 Democratic Nomination Odds Post Debates via SportsBetting.
We have entered a new era in American politics. The 2016 election exposed how economic, social and cultural issues have splintered the country and increasingly divided voters by age, race, education and geography. This isn’t going to change. What have changed are the political fault lines that have driven the debate since the early 1980s.
Until now, the ideological divides between the parties were largely differences around social issues, defense spending and trade, as well as tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations. Today, the central issue has become populism as voters have moved away from the two political parties and increasingly self-identified as independents. In 2016, Trump capitalized on this changing political environment. That explains their willingness to stick with him despite his failures of leadership.
Since Trump’s inaugural address, his focus has been on maintaining his support among this loyal base rather than expanding it. As counterintuitive as it may seem, this could be a winning political strategy.
Donald Trump’s victory speech, in less than three minutes
9, 2016, President-elect Donald Trump addressed supporters in New York. Here are key moments from that speech. In fact, two out of the last three presidents were elected despite losing the popular vote. Second, the continued decline in support for both political parties works to Trump’s advantage.
The lack of voters’ faith in both parties increases the probability that there will be a major third-party candidate on the 2020 ballot. It will also lead to other minor-party candidates joining the presidential race. Third, despite dismal poll numbers, Trump enters the contest with a job approval rating that is certainly at least marginally better than what the current national polls would suggest. Throughout the 2016 election, most analysts tracked the national polling, which failed to capture Trump’s strength in key battleground states.
Current surveys continue to understate his support. There is another group of Trump followers whose support isn’t unequivocal, but they have stayed with him because they still believe he will blow up the system and bring about real change. In order to maintain and nurture his base, Trump will continue to embrace conflict, which will probably solidify his historically low approval ratings. Trump cannot win a two-person race this way.
But he can prevail in a field with strong independent candidates on the ballot.
Scenes from Trump?s second six months in office
A look at the second half, so far, of the president?s first year in the White House. So for Democrats and others who want to beat Trump, unifying behind one candidate will be essential. In addition, Trump must carry Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in 2020 to win. Efforts should begin now to chip away at his support in these states.